As a general rule, shell scenarios are plausible and difficult to explore. They take into account real and potential trends in policy, demographics and technology. They expand our thinking and help society make decisive decisions and manage critical uncertainties. “These scenarios are part of an ongoing process that Shell has been working on for more than 40 years to challenge executives` outlook on the future business environment. They are designed to stretch management, to account for events that can only be possible remotely. Scenarios are therefore not designed as predictions of likely future events or outcomes. By 2070, a new energy system can be created. Discover Sky, a technically possible but difficult way for the company to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Shell has launched a new scenario that illustrates a “technically possible but difficult path” for society to achieve the goals of the Paris climate change agreement. Sky`s outlook predicts a rapid 50-year energy transition that will reach zero net emissions from the energy system by 2070. Courtesy David Hone`s Shell Climate Change Blog.
Discover the Sky storyline with our content series “Could the company achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement?”, 12 questions on important topics within Sky. By 2070, Shell said, 10,000 large CCS facilities are expected to be operational, perhaps 3,000 very large sites at large coal-fired power plants. By comparison, there are now fewer than 3,000 coal-fired power plants in the world. Shell`s gas requirements are above average for scenarios below 2C until 2040, when they are slightly below average. Coal consumption remains relatively high this century. The first thing that emerges from this comparison is that Shell is moving towards a sharp increase in global demand for primary energy. In this regard, Shell`s scenario is at the top of the range of other 2C scenarios, as shown in the top graph left below. In a 2015 Carbon Letter interview, Jeremy Bentham, Shell`s vice president of global business environment and head of scenarios, said 2C paths had become “less politically and socially plausible.”